· Analysis updated 10:56 UTC
Gievenbeck vs Preußen Münster II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Gievenbeck and 1.53 for Preußen Münster II, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Gievenbeck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gievenbeck home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Preußen Münster II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Gievenbeck
- 2026-10-25T14:15:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen · 9-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Vreden · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs ASC Dortmund · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hiltrup · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Verl II · 0-6 (L)
Preußen Münster II
- 2026-08-30T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ennepetal · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T13:30:00.000Z · A vs TuS Hordel · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lippstadt 08 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Schermbeck · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Schalke 04 II · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · Gievenbeck 2-1 Preußen Münster II (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2026-03-22T13:30:00.000Z · Gievenbeck 1-2 Preußen Münster II (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2025-09-26T17:45:00.000Z · Gievenbeck 2-1 Preußen Münster II (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2025-02-23T13:30:00.000Z · Gievenbeck 2-1 Preußen Münster II (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2024-09-07T13:00:00.000Z · Gievenbeck 1-2 Preußen Münster II (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2024-03-03T14:00:00.000Z · Gievenbeck 1-3 Preußen Münster II (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2023-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · Gievenbeck 1-1 Preußen Münster II (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2023-04-06T15:30:00.000Z · Gievenbeck 1-1 Preußen Münster II (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2022-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · Gievenbeck 0-3 Preußen Münster II (Oberliga - Westfalen)
Oberliga - Westfalen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gievenbeck | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 26 |
| 2 | Vreden | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Maaslingen | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Eintracht Rheine | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 5 | Arminia II | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 6 | Lippstadt 08 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 7 | ASC Dortmund | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Erkenschwick | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 9 | Sprockhovel | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 18 |
| 10 | Preußen Münster II | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 11 | Verl II | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 12 | Westfalia Kinderhaus | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 13 | Hiltrup | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 13 |
| 14 | TuS Hordel | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | SpVgg Herne Horsthausen | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
| 16 | Ennepetal | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 11 |
| 17 | Victoria Clarholz | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Schermbeck | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.