· Analysis updated 00:22 UTC
Gijang United vs Geumsan Insam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Gijang United and 1.83 for Geumsan Insam, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Geumsan Insam the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Geumsan Insam win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gijang United home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Geumsan Insam away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Geumsan Insam to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 27% / 23% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Gijang United and 1.83 for Geumsan Insam, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.0%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–16.8%
Recent form
Gijang United
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Sejong SA · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Namyangju · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Geumsan Insam · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyeongtaek Citizen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Jinju Citizen · 1-4 (L)
Geumsan Insam
- 2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Jinju Citizen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Seosan Pioneer · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-11T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Jecheon Citizen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Changwon City · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K4 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jinju Citizen | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 51 |
| 2 | Jincheon | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 42 |
| 3 | Namyangju | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 39 |
| 4 | Jungnang Chorus Mustang | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 37 |
| 5 | Geumsan Insam | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 6 | Geoje Citizen | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 34 |
| 7 | Jecheon Citizen | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | -3 | 31 |
| 8 | Pyeongchang United | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 9 | Sejong SA | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -14 | 29 |
| 10 | Gijang United | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | -12 | 26 |
| 11 | Haman | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -15 | 20 |
| 12 | Pyeongtaek Citizen | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -21 | 14 |
| 13 | Seosan Pioneer | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -24 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Geumsan Insam win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.