· Analysis updated 06:44 UTC
Gijón Industrial vs San Martín Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Gijón Industrial and 1.20 for San Martín, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Gijón Industrial the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gijón Industrial win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Martín away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gijón Industrial to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Gijón Industrial and 1.20 for San Martín, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–26.7%
Recent form
Gijón Industrial
San Martín
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Praviano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs L'Entregu · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Covadonga · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ceares · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Astur · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Gijón II | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Covadonga | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 19 |
| 3 | Condal | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | Mosconia | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Caudal | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Lealtad | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Siero | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | San Martín | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Praviano | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 10 | Gijón Industrial | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Colunga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 12 | Langreo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Avilés Stadium | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | Astur | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | Ceares | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | L'Entregu | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 17 | Llanes | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Andes | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gijón Industrial win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.