· Analysis updated 15:37 UTC
Gil Vicente U19 vs Rio Ave U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Gil Vicente U19 and 0.45 for Rio Ave U19, a combined total of 1.38. That distribution gives Gil Vicente U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 16% for over 2.5 goals and 22% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Gil Vicente U19 win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 0.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gil Vicente U19 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gil Vicente U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 37% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Gil Vicente U19 and 0.45 for Rio Ave U19, a combined 1.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–025.3%
- 1–023.4%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–010.8%
- 1–110.5%
Recent form
Gil Vicente U19
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vizela U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Feirense U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Braga U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu U19 · 1-0 (W)
Rio Ave U19
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · Gil Vicente U19 1-2 Rio Ave U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2026-01-24T15:00:00.000Z · Gil Vicente U19 1-2 Rio Ave U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2026-01-05T15:00:00.000Z · Gil Vicente U19 0-3 Rio Ave U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Gil Vicente U19 2-1 Rio Ave U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2024-12-22T15:00:00.000Z · Gil Vicente U19 0-0 Rio Ave U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2024-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · Gil Vicente U19 2-1 Rio Ave U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2024-04-20T15:00:00.000Z · Gil Vicente U19 1-2 Rio Ave U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2024-02-17T15:00:00.000Z · Gil Vicente U19 1-1 Rio Ave U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2023-12-01T11:00:00.000Z · Gil Vicente U19 0-2 Rio Ave U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2023-09-02T00:00:00.000Z · Gil Vicente U19 4-1 Rio Ave U19 (Júniores U19)
Júniores U19 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto U19 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 13 |
| 1 | Sporting CP U19 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 2 | Gil Vicente U19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Benfica U19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 3 | Sporting Braga U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Oriental U19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Vitoria Guimaraes U19 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 4 | Santa Clara U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Feirense U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Mafra U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 8 |
| 6 | Rio Ave U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Torreense U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Famalicão U19 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 7 | Casa Pia U19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 8 | Academico Viseu U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | SC Farense U19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 9 | Moreirense U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Alverca U19 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 10 | Vizela U19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
| 10 | União Leiria U19 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gil Vicente U19 win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 22% and over 2.5 goals at 16%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.