Estádio Cidade de Barcelos · Referee B. J. Costa · Analysis updated 22:01 UTC
GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.80 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives GIL Vicente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
GIL Vicente win
58.8% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
Why the model likes this
GIL Vicente home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Casa Pia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GIL Vicente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 24% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for GIL Vicente and 0.80 for Casa Pia, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
GIL Vicente
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Felgueiras 1932 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 0-3 (L)
Casa Pia
- 2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Leixoes · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-07-25T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arouca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Nacional | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Estoril | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 14 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.