Gillingham vs Port Vale Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Gillingham and 0.63 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.12. That distribution gives Gillingham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Gillingham win

58.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.49 – 0.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gillingham home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Port Vale away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gillingham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 26% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Gillingham and 0.63 for Port Vale, a combined 2.12 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Gillingham win58%

Draw26%

Port Vale win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

1–017.9%
2–013.4%
0–012.0%
1–111.3%
2–18.4%

Recent form

Gillingham

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs York · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambridge United · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol Rovers · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tranmere · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rochdale · 4-1 (W)

Port Vale

2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mansfield Town · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesterfield · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Walsall · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Exeter City · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Salford City · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	10	6	1	3	5	19
2	Barnet	8	5	3	0	9	18
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	5	18
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	5	16
5	York	9	4	3	2	6	15
6	Walsall	9	3	6	0	6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	4	3	3	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	-2	15
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Grimsby	10	3	4	3	2	13
12	Newport County	10	3	4	3	1	13
13	Tranmere	10	2	6	2	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	3	3	4	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	2	5	3	-1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	2	5	3	-1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	3	2	5	-5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	3	2	5	-6	11
19	Colchester	9	2	4	3	-3	10
20	Rotherham	10	2	4	4	-4	10
21	Oldham	9	2	2	5	-4	8
22	Port Vale	8	2	2	4	-5	8
23	Northampton	8	1	4	3	-3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	1	2	5	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gillingham win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.