Gillingham vs Walsall Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.04 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Gillingham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.11 – 1.04

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gillingham home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Walsall away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gillingham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 30% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Gillingham and 1.04 for Walsall, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Gillingham win37%

Draw30%

Walsall win34%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–113.4%
1–012.9%
0–112.1%
0–011.6%
2–17.5%

Recent form

Gillingham

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs York · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambridge United · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol Rovers · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tranmere · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rochdale · 4-1 (W)

Walsall

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tranmere · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Stevenage · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Port Vale · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rochdale · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	10	6	1	3	5	19
2	Barnet	8	5	3	0	9	18
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	5	18
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	5	16
5	York	9	4	3	2	6	15
6	Walsall	9	3	6	0	6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	4	3	3	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	-2	15
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Grimsby	10	3	4	3	2	13
12	Newport County	10	3	4	3	1	13
13	Tranmere	10	2	6	2	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	3	3	4	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	2	5	3	-1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	2	5	3	-1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	3	2	5	-5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	3	2	5	-6	11
19	Colchester	9	2	4	3	-3	10
20	Rotherham	10	2	4	4	-4	10
21	Oldham	9	2	2	5	-4	8
22	Port Vale	8	2	2	4	-5	8
23	Northampton	8	1	4	3	-3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	1	2	5	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.