Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.75 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Daejeon Citizen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Daejeon Citizen win

48.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Daejeon Citizen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Daejeon Citizen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 29% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.75 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Gimcheon Sangmu FC win29%

Draw23%

Daejeon Citizen win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.8%
1–29.4%
0–18.3%
0–27.3%
2–17.0%

Recent form

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Bucheon FC 1995 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Gangwon FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Pohang Steelers · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gwangju FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Ulsan Hyundai FC · 1-3 (L)

Daejeon Citizen

2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Incheon United · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sanga · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pohang Steelers · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Anyang · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Bucheon FC 1995 · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

K League 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Seoul	31	20	5	6	32	65
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	31	14	5	12	4	47
3	Gangwon FC	31	11	13	7	10	46
4	Jeju United FC	31	12	10	9	5	46
5	Jeonbuk Motors	31	11	11	9	9	44
6	Daejeon Citizen	31	11	10	10	10	43
7	Incheon United	31	11	9	11	6	42
8	FC Anyang	31	10	11	10	-8	41
9	Pohang Steelers	31	11	7	13	-9	40
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	31	5	18	8	-7	33
11	Bucheon FC 1995	31	7	11	13	-11	32
12	Gwangju FC	31	2	12	17	-41	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Daejeon Citizen win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.