Gimcheon Stadium · Referee Dong Jun Lee, South Korea · Analysis updated 09:03 UTC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0.63 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gimcheon Sangmu FC win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gwangju FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.3%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–011.8%
- 0–19.8%
Recent form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- 2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Bucheon FC 1995 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Gangwon FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Pohang Steelers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gwangju FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Ulsan Hyundai FC · 1-3 (L)
Gwangju FC
- 2026-09-20T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Jeonbuk Motors · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Anyang · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Jeju United FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Seoul · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-2 Gwangju FC (K League 1)
- 2026-07-22T10:30:00.000Z · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Gwangju FC (K League 1)
- 2026-03-17T10:30:00.000Z · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Gwangju FC (K League 1)
- 2025-07-22T10:30:00.000Z · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Gwangju FC (K League 1)
- 2025-05-05T07:30:00.000Z · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1 Gwangju FC (K League 1)
- 2025-03-16T07:30:00.000Z · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-0 Gwangju FC (K League 1)
- 2024-09-28T10:00:00.000Z · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-0 Gwangju FC (K League 1)
- 2024-06-15T10:00:00.000Z · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-2 Gwangju FC (K League 1)
- 2024-04-06T07:30:00.000Z · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-1 Gwangju FC (K League 1)
- 2020-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0 Gwangju FC (K League 1)
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 31 | 20 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 65 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 47 |
| 3 | Gangwon FC | 31 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 4 | Jeju United FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 46 |
| 5 | Jeonbuk Motors | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 44 |
| 6 | Daejeon Citizen | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 43 |
| 7 | Incheon United | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 42 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 31 | 10 | 11 | 10 | -8 | 41 |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | -9 | 40 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 31 | 5 | 18 | 8 | -7 | 33 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 31 | 2 | 12 | 17 | -41 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gimcheon Sangmu FC win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.