Gimcheon Stadium · Referee Cheol-Jun Choi, South Korea · Analysis updated 00:02 UTC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.10 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Jeonbuk Motors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Jeonbuk Motors away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 33% / 30% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.10 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.1%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–011.9%
- 1–27.4%
Recent form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- 2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Bucheon FC 1995 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Gangwon FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Pohang Steelers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gwangju FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Ulsan Hyundai FC · 1-3 (L)
Jeonbuk Motors
- 2026-10-09T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Daejeon Citizen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Gwangju FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kashiwa Reysol · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T07:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Seoul · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Gangwon FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 33 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 32 | 67 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 51 |
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 49 |
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 48 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 33 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 48 |
| 6 | Incheon United | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 46 |
| 7 | Jeju United FC | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 46 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -9 | 42 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 33 | 5 | 19 | 9 | -8 | 34 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | -15 | 32 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 33 | 3 | 12 | 18 | -39 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.