Gimhae City vs Cheonan City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Gimhae City and 1.85 for Cheonan City, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Cheonan City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Cheonan City win

52.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.22 – 1.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gimhae City home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cheonan City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Gimhae City win25%

Draw23%

Cheonan City win52%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.5%
1–29.7%
0–18.5%
0–27.9%
2–16.4%

Recent form

Gimhae City

2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Paju Citizen · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Busan I Park · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeonnam Dragons · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Yongin City · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-22T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Suwon City FC · 0-2 (L)

Cheonan City

2026-10-25T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Ansan Greeners · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-10T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Gyeongnam FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Asan Mugunghwa · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Suwon City FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hwaseong · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-10T10:30:00.000Z · Gimhae City 1-0 Cheonan City (K League 2)
2022-10-22T06:00:00.000Z · Gimhae City 1-1 Cheonan City (K3 League)
2022-08-06T10:00:00.000Z · Gimhae City 0-2 Cheonan City (K3 League)
2021-08-14T10:00:00.000Z · Gimhae City 1-5 Cheonan City (K3 League)
2021-04-11T06:00:00.000Z · Gimhae City 1-2 Cheonan City (K3 League)
2020-07-18T10:00:00.000Z · Gimhae City 1-1 Cheonan City (K3 League)
2020-06-06T10:00:00.000Z · Gimhae City 4-2 Cheonan City (FA Cup)
2019-10-23T10:30:00.000Z · Gimhae City 0-1 Cheonan City (K3 League)
2019-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · Gimhae City 0-1 Cheonan City (K3 League)
2019-07-12T10:30:00.000Z · Gimhae City 1-2 Cheonan City (K3 League)

K League 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Suwon Bluewings	28	19	5	4	25	62
2	Suwon City FC	28	15	9	4	22	54
3	Seoul E-Land FC	28	16	6	6	20	54
4	Daegu FC	28	15	7	6	17	52
5	Busan I Park	29	14	6	9	10	48
6	Hwaseong	29	12	9	8	12	45
7	Asan Mugunghwa	28	10	9	9	4	39
8	Gimpo Citizen	28	9	11	8	2	38
9	Gyeongnam FC	28	8	11	9	-2	35
10	Cheongju	29	6	14	9	-12	32
11	Seongnam FC	28	7	10	11	-7	31
12	Paju Citizen	28	8	7	13	-7	31
13	Yongin City	28	6	12	10	-7	30
14	Cheonan City	28	6	11	11	-4	29
15	Ansan Greeners	29	7	4	18	-23	25
16	Jeonnam Dragons	28	5	9	14	-17	24
17	Gimhae City	28	3	8	17	-33	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cheonan City win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.