Gimhae Sports Complex · Analysis updated 20:19 UTC
Gimhae City vs Hwaseong Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Gimhae City and 1.80 for Hwaseong, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Hwaseong the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hwaseong win
61.8% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimhae City home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hwaseong away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hwaseong to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 16% / 23% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Gimhae City and 1.80 for Hwaseong, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 0–212.3%
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Gimhae City
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Paju Citizen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Busan I Park · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeonnam Dragons · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Yongin City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Suwon City FC · 0-2 (L)
Hwaseong
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Seongnam FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ansan Greeners · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheonan City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheongju · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Jeonnam Dragons · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon Bluewings | 28 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 62 |
| 2 | Suwon City FC | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 22 | 54 |
| 3 | Seoul E-Land FC | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 54 |
| 4 | Daegu FC | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 52 |
| 5 | Busan I Park | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 48 |
| 6 | Hwaseong | 29 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 45 |
| 7 | Asan Mugunghwa | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 39 |
| 8 | Gimpo Citizen | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 38 |
| 9 | Gyeongnam FC | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | -2 | 35 |
| 10 | Cheongju | 29 | 6 | 14 | 9 | -12 | 32 |
| 11 | Seongnam FC | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -7 | 31 |
| 12 | Paju Citizen | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | -7 | 31 |
| 13 | Yongin City | 28 | 6 | 12 | 10 | -7 | 30 |
| 14 | Cheonan City | 28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | -4 | 29 |
| 15 | Ansan Greeners | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | -23 | 25 |
| 16 | Jeonnam Dragons | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -17 | 24 |
| 17 | Gimhae City | 28 | 3 | 8 | 17 | -33 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hwaseong win, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.