Jose Maria Paz · Analysis updated 18:50 UTC
Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Defensores de Vilelas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for Gimnasia Chivilcoy and 0.87 for Defensores de Vilelas, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Gimnasia Chivilcoy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gimnasia Chivilcoy win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia Chivilcoy home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Defensores de Vilelas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnasia Chivilcoy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 25% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.64 goals for Gimnasia Chivilcoy and 0.87 for Defensores de Vilelas, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Douglas Haig · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de América · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bartolomé Mitre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 1-0 (W)
Defensores de Vilelas
- 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Unidos · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente De Chivilcoy · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Escobar · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gimnasia Chivilcoy win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.