Jose Maria Paz · Analysis updated 14:48 UTC
Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs El Linqueño Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Gimnasia Chivilcoy and 0.73 for El Linqueño, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Gimnasia Chivilcoy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gimnasia Chivilcoy win
48.1% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia Chivilcoy home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
El Linqueño away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.4%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–010.7%
- 0–110.3%
Recent form
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Douglas Haig · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de América · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bartolomé Mitre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 1-0 (W)
El Linqueño
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Escobar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Vilelas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-12T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Concepción · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tucuman Central · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-05T19:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Chivilcoy 1-0 El Linqueño (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-05-03T19:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Chivilcoy 1-1 El Linqueño (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Chivilcoy 2-1 El Linqueño (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-10-05T19:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Chivilcoy 1-1 El Linqueño (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-06-28T18:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Chivilcoy 1-1 El Linqueño (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-04-28T23:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0-0 El Linqueño (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gimnasia Chivilcoy win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.