Jose Maria Paz · Analysis updated 08:03 UTC
Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Gimnasia Concepción Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Gimnasia Chivilcoy and 0.51 for Gimnasia Concepción, a combined total of 1.62. That distribution gives Gimnasia Chivilcoy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gimnasia Chivilcoy win
50.1% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 0.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia Chivilcoy home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia Concepción away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnasia Chivilcoy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 33% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Gimnasia Chivilcoy and 0.51 for Gimnasia Concepción, a combined 1.62 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–021.9%
- 0–019.8%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–110.2%
Recent form
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Douglas Haig · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de América · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bartolomé Mitre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 1-0 (W)
Gimnasia Concepción
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Resistencia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Boca Unidos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente De Chivilcoy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Escobar · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gimnasia Chivilcoy win, at 50.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.