Jose Maria Paz · Analysis updated 17:12 UTC
Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.46 expected goals for Gimnasia Chivilcoy and 0.60 for Olimpo Bahia Blanca, a combined total of 1.06. That distribution gives Olimpo Bahia Blanca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 32%, with the draw at 45%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 9% for over 2.5 goals and 17% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 35%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 32% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.1% probability
Expected goals
0.46 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia Chivilcoy home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Olimpo Bahia Blanca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 23% / 45% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.46 goals for Gimnasia Chivilcoy and 0.60 for Olimpo Bahia Blanca, a combined 1.06 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
55%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–034.6%
- 0–120.6%
- 1–016.1%
- 1–19.6%
- 0–26.2%
Recent form
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Douglas Haig · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de América · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bartolomé Mitre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 1-0 (W)
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alvarado · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 17% and over 2.5 goals at 9%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.