Jose Maria Paz · Analysis updated 01:04 UTC
Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Sarmiento de La Banda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Gimnasia Chivilcoy and 0.68 for Sarmiento de La Banda, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Gimnasia Chivilcoy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gimnasia Chivilcoy win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia Chivilcoy home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sarmiento de La Banda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnasia Chivilcoy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 32% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Gimnasia Chivilcoy and 0.68 for Sarmiento de La Banda, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.5%
- 0–016.5%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.2%
- 2–010.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.6%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.73 | 52.5% | 53.9% | 1.86 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 45.5% | 46.0% | 2.17 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 77.6% | 77.7% | 1.29 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.80 | 31.7% | 31.7% | 3.15 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.90 | 22.8% | 22.2% | 4.50 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 69.9% | 68.2% | 1.47 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
- 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Vilelas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Vilelas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Douglas Haig · 0-0 (D)
Sarmiento de La Banda
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martin Formosa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Belgrano · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Chivilcoy 1-0 Sarmiento de La Banda (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-08-24T19:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Chivilcoy 3-0 Sarmiento de La Banda (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gimnasia Chivilcoy win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.