Jose Maria Paz · Analysis updated 06:36 UTC
Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Sol de América Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Gimnasia Chivilcoy and 0.65 for Sol de América, a combined total of 1.47. That distribution gives Gimnasia Chivilcoy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.6% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia Chivilcoy home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sol de América away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 37% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Gimnasia Chivilcoy and 0.65 for Sol de América, a combined 1.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–022.9%
- 1–018.9%
- 0–114.9%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–07.8%
Recent form
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
- 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Vilelas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Vilelas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Douglas Haig · 0-0 (D)
Sol de América
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cipolletti · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Belgrano · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.