Jose Maria Paz · Analysis updated 00:41 UTC
Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Sportivo Belgrano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Gimnasia Chivilcoy and 0.85 for Sportivo Belgrano, a combined total of 1.73. That distribution gives Gimnasia Chivilcoy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.5% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia Chivilcoy home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sportivo Belgrano away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.8%
- 1–015.6%
- 0–115.1%
- 1–113.3%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
- 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Vilelas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Vilelas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Douglas Haig · 0-0 (D)
Sportivo Belgrano
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Douglas Haig · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de América · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:05:00.000Z · H vs Bartolomé Mitre · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T19:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0-0 Sportivo Belgrano (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-05-31T19:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0-1 Sportivo Belgrano (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-03-29T18:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0-0 Sportivo Belgrano (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Chivilcoy 3-0 Sportivo Belgrano (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-06-15T20:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0-0 Sportivo Belgrano (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-04-13T18:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Chivilcoy 2-1 Sportivo Belgrano (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.