Estadio Manuel y Ramon Nunez · Analysis updated 06:13 UTC
Gimnasia Concepción vs El Linqueño Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Gimnasia Concepción and 0.85 for El Linqueño, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Gimnasia Concepción the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.6% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia Concepción home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
El Linqueño away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 0 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.6%
- 0–013.9%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.8%
- 2–08.8%
Recent form
Gimnasia Concepción
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Resistencia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Boca Unidos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente De Chivilcoy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Escobar · 2-0 (W)
El Linqueño
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Escobar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Vilelas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-12T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Concepción · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tucuman Central · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-12T23:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-0 El Linqueño (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-07-26T18:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-1 El Linqueño (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-05-17T18:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-0 El Linqueño (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-07-28T23:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-0 El Linqueño (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-05-18T19:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-2 El Linqueño (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-03-16T20:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 1-0 El Linqueño (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 2-0 El Linqueño (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-05-19T18:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-1 El Linqueño (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-03-23T19:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-1 El Linqueño (Torneo Federal A)
- 2023-10-15T18:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-1 El Linqueño (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.