Estadio Manuel y Ramon Nunez · Analysis updated 02:16 UTC
Gimnasia Concepción vs Independiente De Chivilcoy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Gimnasia Concepción and 0.84 for Independiente De Chivilcoy, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Gimnasia Concepción the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gimnasia Concepción win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia Concepción home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Independiente De Chivilcoy away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–010.2%
- 0–19.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 48.7% | 51.0% | 1.96 | +2.3 |
| Match result | Away | 4.20 | 21.2% | 23.2% | 4.31 | +2.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.48 | 60.8% | 62.3% | 1.61 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.83 | 48.6% | 49.0% | 2.04 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 72.1% | 72.2% | 1.39 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.30 | 39.2% | 37.7% | 2.65 | -1.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 79.1% | 76.8% | 1.30 | -2.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.95 | 30.2% | 27.8% | 3.60 | -2.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Gimnasia Concepción
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Resistencia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Boca Unidos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente De Chivilcoy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Escobar · 2-0 (W)
Independiente De Chivilcoy
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Escobar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Vilelas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs El Linqueño · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Concepción · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Tucuman Central · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-0 Independiente De Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-0 Independiente De Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-04-11T22:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-1 Independiente De Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-06-08T18:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 3-0 Independiente De Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-04-06T18:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-3 Independiente De Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-09-08T18:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 2-3 Independiente De Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-06-01T18:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-0 Independiente De Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-04-07T19:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-3 Independiente De Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2023-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-0 Independiente De Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2023-07-02T18:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 1-0 Independiente De Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gimnasia Concepción win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.