Estadio Manuel y Ramon Nunez · Analysis updated 01:02 UTC
Gimnasia Concepción vs Sarmiento Resistencia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Gimnasia Concepción and 0.52 for Sarmiento Resistencia, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Gimnasia Concepción the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gimnasia Concepción win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia Concepción home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sarmiento Resistencia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.1%
- 2–014.6%
- 0–013.9%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Gimnasia Concepción
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Resistencia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Boca Unidos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente De Chivilcoy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Escobar · 2-0 (W)
Sarmiento Resistencia
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs El Linqueño · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Concepción · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tucuman Central · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Unidos · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-08-03T18:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 1-2 Sarmiento Resistencia (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-08-11T18:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-1 Sarmiento Resistencia (Torneo Federal A)
- 2022-08-25T00:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-1 Sarmiento Resistencia (Torneo Federal A)
- 2022-05-15T18:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-0 Sarmiento Resistencia (Torneo Federal A)
- 2021-09-10T22:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-0 Sarmiento Resistencia (Torneo Federal A)
- 2021-06-07T18:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 2-4 Sarmiento Resistencia (Torneo Federal A)
- 2019-12-07T20:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 0-1 Sarmiento Resistencia (Torneo Federal A)
- 2015-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 4-2 Sarmiento Resistencia (Torneo Federal A)
- 2015-05-27T23:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia Concepción 2-0 Sarmiento Resistencia (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gimnasia Concepción win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.