Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo · Referee P. Dovalo · Analysis updated 20:33 UTC
Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Gimnasia L.P. and 0.76 for Atletico Tucuman, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Gimnasia L.P. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gimnasia L.P. win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia L.P. home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Tucuman away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnasia L.P. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 30% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Gimnasia L.P. and 0.76 for Atletico Tucuman, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.8%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–112.8%
- 2–010.4%
- 0–110.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 62.2% vs market 53.3%, edge +8.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 53.3% | 62.2% | 1.61 | +8.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.83 | 51.6% | 52.4% | 1.91 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.4% | 29.6% | 3.38 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 22.8% | 22.8% | 4.39 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.91 | 47.8% | 47.6% | 2.10 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 77.4% | 77.2% | 1.30 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 71.0% | 70.4% | 1.42 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 46.7% | 37.8% | 2.65 | -8.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Gimnasia L.P.
- 2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos JRS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Tigre · 2-1 (W)
Atletico Tucuman
- 2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T20:30:00.000Z · H vs River Plate · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gimnasia L.P. win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.