· Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Gimnasia La Plata Res. vs Aldosivi Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Gimnasia La Plata Res. and 0.98 for Aldosivi Res., a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Aldosivi Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.0% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia La Plata Res. home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aldosivi Res. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aldosivi Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 32% / 32% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Gimnasia La Plata Res. and 0.98 for Aldosivi Res., a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.3%
- 0–115.0%
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–27.3%
Recent form
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigre Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes La Plata Res · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate Res. · 0-1 (L)
Aldosivi Res.
- 2026-09-08T22:00:00.000Z · A vs River Plate Res. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club Res. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Res. · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia La Plata Res. 2-0 Aldosivi Res. (Reserve League)
- 2026-02-16T20:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia La Plata Res. 3-1 Aldosivi Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia La Plata Res. 2-1 Aldosivi Res. (Reserve League)
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.