· Analysis updated 14:48 UTC
Gimnasia La Plata Res. vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Gimnasia La Plata Res. and 0.67 for Gimnasia Mendoza 2, a combined total of 1.55. That distribution gives Gimnasia La Plata Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.7% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia La Plata Res. home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnasia La Plata Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 36% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Gimnasia La Plata Res. and 0.67 for Gimnasia Mendoza 2, a combined 1.55 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.2%
- 1–018.6%
- 0–114.3%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–08.2%
Recent form
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Córdoba Res. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Banfield Res. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central Res. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigre Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes La Plata Res · 2-0 (W)
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
- 2026-10-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tucumán Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Godoy Cruz Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Instituto Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente Riva. Res. · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.