· Analysis updated 00:42 UTC
Gimnasia La Plata Res. vs San Lorenzo Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Gimnasia La Plata Res. and 0.95 for San Lorenzo Res., a combined total of 1.78. That distribution gives San Lorenzo Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.0% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia La Plata Res. home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Lorenzo Res. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Lorenzo Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 30% / 33% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Gimnasia La Plata Res. and 0.95 for San Lorenzo Res., a combined 1.78 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.9%
- 0–116.1%
- 1–014.0%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–27.6%
Recent form
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigre Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes La Plata Res · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate Res. · 0-1 (L)
San Lorenzo Res.
- 2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi Res. · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.