· Analysis updated 16:16 UTC
Gimnasia La Plata Res. vs Sarmiento Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Gimnasia La Plata Res. and 0.70 for Sarmiento Res., a combined total of 1.45. That distribution gives Gimnasia La Plata Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 38%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 18% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.2% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia La Plata Res. home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sarmiento Res. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–023.5%
- 1–017.6%
- 0–116.4%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–06.6%
Recent form
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigre Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes La Plata Res · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate Res. · 0-1 (L)
Sarmiento Res.
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atl. Rafaela 2 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club Res. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Res. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi Res. · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T17:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia La Plata Res. 0-2 Sarmiento Res. (Reserve League)
- 2026-03-17T18:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia La Plata Res. 0-2 Sarmiento Res. (Reserve League)
- 2025-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia La Plata Res. 2-0 Sarmiento Res. (Reserve League)
- 2025-04-24T18:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia La Plata Res. 4-2 Sarmiento Res. (Reserve League)
- 2023-05-25T14:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia La Plata Res. 0-2 Sarmiento Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-08-26T00:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia La Plata Res. 2-0 Sarmiento Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-04-15T13:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia La Plata Res. 1-0 Sarmiento Res. (Reserve League)
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 18%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.