Victor Legrotaglie · Referee A. Gariano · Analysis updated 15:43 UTC
Gimnasia M. vs Deportivo Riestra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Gimnasia M. and 0.73 for Deportivo Riestra, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Gimnasia M. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.5% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia M. home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Riestra away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.3%
- 1–017.7%
- 0–113.3%
- 1–112.9%
- 2–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.60 (model 67.8% vs market 58.4%, edge +9.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.60 | 58.4% | 67.8% | 1.47 | +9.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.29 | 72.6% | 73.5% | 1.36 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 3.50 | 26.2% | 26.5% | 3.77 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 39.9% | 39.8% | 2.51 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 60.4% | 60.2% | 1.66 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.70 | 34.0% | 33.7% | 2.97 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 66.9% | 66.3% | 1.51 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.25 | 41.6% | 32.2% | 3.11 | -9.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Gimnasia M.
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes L.P. · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Riestra · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Defensa Y Justicia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Independiente · 3-0 (W)
Deportivo Riestra
- 2026-10-11T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia M. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-12T20:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia M. 0-0 Deportivo Riestra (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-03-23T19:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia M. 0-0 Deportivo Riestra (Primera Nacional)
- 2021-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia M. 0-0 Deportivo Riestra (Primera Nacional)
- 2021-06-23T00:10:00.000Z · Gimnasia M. 1-1 Deportivo Riestra (Primera Nacional)
- 2020-12-14T20:10:00.000Z · Gimnasia M. 3-1 Deportivo Riestra (Primera Nacional)
- 2019-10-07T18:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia M. 0-0 Deportivo Riestra (Primera Nacional)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.