Argentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 1618:00

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Saturday, 7 November 2026

Víctor Legrotaglie · Referee Facundo Tello · Analysis updated 00:08 UTC

Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Gimnasia M. and 1.03 for Independ. Rivadavia, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Independ. Rivadavia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

0.92 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gimnasia M. home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Independ. Rivadavia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Gimnasia M. win32%

Draw31%

Independ. Rivadavia win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals58%

Over 2.5 goals31%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

0–114.7%
0–014.2%
1–113.5%
1–013.1%
0–27.5%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.8%), compared with our model probability.

Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 61.3% vs market 52.7%, edge +8.6 pts).

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	NoValue	1.75	52.7%	61.3%	1.63	+8.6
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.50	62.4%	62.8%	1.59	+0.4
Match result	Home	2.90	31.4%	31.5%	3.17	+0.1
Match result	Away	2.45	37.2%	37.3%	2.68	+0.1
Double chance	Home/Away	1.36	68.8%	68.8%	1.45	-0.0
Match result	Draw	2.90	31.4%	31.3%	3.19	-0.1
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.36	68.8%	68.6%	1.46	-0.2
Both teams to score	Yes	1.95	47.3%	38.7%	2.58	-8.6

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Gimnasia M.

2026-11-01T23:45:00.000Z · A vs Lanus · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-23T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Platense · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Velez Sarsfield · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Newells Old Boys · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes L.P. · 0-3 (L)

Independ. Rivadavia

2026-11-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia M. · 1-1 (D)
2026-11-03T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-27T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos JRS · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Tigre · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosario Central · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-11-07T18:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia M. 1-1 Independ. Rivadavia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2026-04-26T18:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia M. 1-5 Independ. Rivadavia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2022-10-22T19:50:00.000Z · Gimnasia M. 1-0 Independ. Rivadavia (Primera Nacional)
2022-07-03T17:45:00.000Z · Gimnasia M. 2-0 Independ. Rivadavia (Primera Nacional)
2022-02-24T01:10:00.000Z · Gimnasia M. 0-2 Independ. Rivadavia (Copa Argentina)
2018-09-30T19:30:00.000Z · Gimnasia M. 1-0 Independ. Rivadavia (Primera Nacional)
2015-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia M. 2-4 Independ. Rivadavia (Primera Nacional)
2015-03-24T20:00:00.000Z · Gimnasia M. 1-3 Independ. Rivadavia (Primera Nacional)

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Instituto Cordoba	15	10	3	2	11	33
2	Boca Juniors	15	8	6	1	9	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	8	28
4	Defensa Y Justicia	15	8	4	3	7	28
5	Lanus	15	7	4	4	7	25
6	Independiente	16	6	5	5	-1	23
7	Newells Old Boys	15	5	7	3	3	22
8	Gimnasia M.	16	6	4	6	1	22
9	Union Santa Fe	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Platense	16	5	5	6	-2	20
11	San Lorenzo	16	5	4	7	-7	19
12	Estudiantes L.P.	16	4	4	8	-1	16
13	Talleres Cordoba	16	3	4	9	-6	13
14	Deportivo Riestra	16	2	6	8	-8	12
15	Central Cordoba de Santiago	15	2	4	9	-14	10
1	Rosario Central	15	9	4	2	12	31
2	Argentinos JRS	15	9	4	2	8	31
3	Gimnasia L.P.	16	9	4	3	5	31
4	River Plate	16	8	2	6	7	26
5	Barracas Central	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Belgrano Cordoba	16	6	5	5	2	23
7	Independ. Rivadavia	16	6	5	5	-3	23
8	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	3	7	-1	21
9	Tigre	16	5	4	7	0	19
10	Huracan	15	5	4	6	-4	19
11	Atletico Tucuman	16	4	6	6	-1	18
12	Banfield	16	3	6	7	-7	15
13	Racing Club	16	4	3	9	-8	15
14	Aldosivi	16	3	2	11	-10	11
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	15	2	3	10	-11	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.