Víctor Legrotaglie · Referee Juan Cruz Robledo · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Gimnasia M. and 0.82 for Newells Old Boys, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Gimnasia M. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.6% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia M. home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Newells Old Boys away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnasia M. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 31% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Gimnasia M. and 0.82 for Newells Old Boys, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.2%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.3%
- 2–08.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 63.0% vs market 55.7%, edge +7.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 55.7% | 63.0% | 1.59 | +7.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 67.8% | 68.6% | 1.46 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 3.40 | 26.9% | 27.4% | 3.65 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 31.5% | 31.4% | 3.18 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.20 | 41.6% | 41.2% | 2.43 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 73.0% | 72.6% | 1.38 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.60 | 59.3% | 58.8% | 1.70 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 44.3% | 37.0% | 2.70 | -7.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Gimnasia M.
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes L.P. · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Riestra · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Defensa Y Justicia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Independiente · 3-0 (W)
Newells Old Boys
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Velez Sarsfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Rosario Central · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes L.P. · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-21T20:45:00.000Z · Gimnasia M. 0-1 Newells Old Boys (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.