Gimnasia Mendoza 2 vs Aldosivi Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Gimnasia Mendoza 2 and 0.90 for Aldosivi Res., a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Gimnasia Mendoza 2 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win

47.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aldosivi Res. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnasia Mendoza 2 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 28% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Gimnasia Mendoza 2 and 0.90 for Aldosivi Res., a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win47%

Draw28%

Aldosivi Res. win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–014.2%
1–112.8%
0–010.5%
2–09.6%
0–19.5%

Recent form

Gimnasia Mendoza 2

2026-08-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo Res. · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate Res. · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Res. · 0-1 (L)

Aldosivi Res.

2026-09-08T22:00:00.000Z · A vs River Plate Res. · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club Res. · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento Res. · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Res. · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Reserve League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	20	15	2	3	29	47
2	Boca Juniors Res.	20	12	3	5	24	39
3	Racing Club Res.	21	11	6	4	7	39
4	River Plate Res.	21	11	4	6	9	37
5	Independiente Res.	19	11	3	5	19	36
6	Lanús Res.	19	11	2	6	13	35
7	Newell's Old Boys Res.	19	10	4	5	9	34
8	Quilmes 2	18	10	3	5	8	33
9	Defensa y Justicia Res.	18	9	5	4	14	32
10	Atlético Tucumán Res.	19	9	3	7	-2	30
11	Unión Santa Fe Res.	18	7	8	3	4	29
12	Estudiantes La Plata Res	18	8	4	6	9	28
13	Argentinos Juniors Res.	18	7	7	4	6	28
14	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	18	8	3	7	-2	27
15	Talleres Córdoba Res.	18	7	5	6	6	26
16	Huracán Res.	18	7	5	6	6	26
17	Rosario Central Res.	18	7	5	6	3	26
18	Platense Res.	18	7	5	6	-3	26
19	Deportivo Riestra Res.	18	7	4	7	7	25
20	Independiente Riva. Res.	18	7	3	8	0	24
21	Instituto Res.	18	5	9	4	-1	24
22	San Lorenzo Res.	18	6	6	6	-2	24
23	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	18	6	5	7	2	23
24	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	18	6	5	7	-3	23
25	Banfield Res.	18	6	5	7	-4	23
26	Ferro 2	18	6	4	8	-3	22
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	18	5	4	9	-12	19
28	Colón Res.	18	5	3	10	-8	18
29	Aldosivi Res.	18	5	3	10	-11	18
30	Barracas Central Res.	18	4	5	9	-13	17
31	Sarmiento Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
32	Tigre Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
33	Godoy Cruz Res.	18	4	3	11	-10	15
34	Atl. Rafaela 2	18	3	3	12	-15	12
35	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	18	2	5	11	-23	11
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	18	2	2	14	-43	8
1	Independiente Res.	14	10	3	1	20	33
2	Lanús Res.	14	9	3	2	13	30
3	Deportivo Riestra Res.	14	8	2	4	11	26
4	Estudiantes La Plata Res	14	7	4	3	10	25
5	Boca Juniors Res.	14	7	4	3	8	25
6	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	14	7	4	3	1	25
7	Vélez Sársfield Res.	14	6	6	2	12	24
8	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	14	6	6	2	5	24
9	Rosario Central Res.	14	6	6	2	2	24
10	River Plate Res.	14	5	8	1	9	23
11	Talleres Córdoba Res.	14	6	5	3	5	23
12	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	14	6	4	4	2	22
13	San Lorenzo Res.	14	6	3	5	3	21
14	Atl. Rafaela 2	14	5	6	3	0	21
15	Huracán Res.	14	6	2	6	2	20
16	Sarmiento Res.	14	4	7	3	3	19
17	Godoy Cruz Res.	14	4	7	3	2	19
18	Instituto Res.	14	4	7	3	0	19
19	Newell's Old Boys Res.	14	4	6	4	3	18
20	Unión Santa Fe Res.	14	3	8	3	4	17
21	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	14	4	5	5	3	17
22	Quilmes 2	14	4	5	5	-3	17
23	Atlético Tucumán Res.	14	4	5	5	-4	17
24	Defensa y Justicia Res.	14	3	7	4	0	16
25	Aldosivi Res.	14	3	6	5	-3	15
26	Independiente Riva. Res.	14	4	3	7	-6	15
27	Tigre Res.	14	4	3	7	-6	15
28	Argentinos Juniors Res.	14	3	5	6	-5	14
29	Racing Club Res.	14	2	7	5	-6	13
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	14	3	4	7	-11	13
31	Banfield Res.	14	3	3	8	-12	12
32	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	14	3	3	8	-12	12
33	Colón Res.	14	3	2	9	-11	11
34	Barracas Central Res.	14	1	7	6	-11	10
35	Platense Res.	14	0	7	7	-11	7
36	Ferro 2	14	1	3	10	-17	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.