Victor Legrotaglie · Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 vs Atlético Tucumán Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Gimnasia Mendoza 2 and 0.71 for Atlético Tucumán Res., a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Gimnasia Mendoza 2 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 0.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Tucumán Res. away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnasia Mendoza 2 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 30% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Gimnasia Mendoza 2 and 0.71 for Atlético Tucumán Res., a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.7%
- 0–014.5%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–010.8%
- 0–110.3%
Recent form
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
- 2026-08-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Res. · 0-1 (L)
Atlético Tucumán Res.
- 2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Córdoba Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Banfield Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central Res. · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.