Victor Legrotaglie · Analysis updated 18:55 UTC
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for Gimnasia Mendoza 2 and 0.72 for Gimnasia La Plata Res., a combined total of 1.54. That distribution gives Gimnasia Mendoza 2 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.0% probability
Expected goals
0.82 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia La Plata Res. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 35% / 36% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.82 goals for Gimnasia Mendoza 2 and 0.72 for Gimnasia La Plata Res., a combined 1.54 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.4%
- 1–017.6%
- 0–115.4%
- 1–112.7%
- 2–07.2%
Recent form
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
- 2026-08-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Res. · 0-1 (L)
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigre Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes La Plata Res · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate Res. · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.