Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Quilmes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Gimnasia Y Tiro and 0.65 for Quilmes, a combined total of 1.82. That distribution gives Gimnasia Y Tiro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Gimnasia Y Tiro win

48.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.17 – 0.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gimnasia Y Tiro home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Quilmes away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnasia Y Tiro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 31% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Gimnasia Y Tiro and 0.65 for Quilmes, a combined 1.82 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Gimnasia Y Tiro win49%

Draw31%

Quilmes win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals55%

Over 2.5 goals28%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

1–018.9%
0–016.1%
1–112.3%
2–011.1%
0–110.5%

Recent form

Gimnasia Y Tiro

2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Jujuy · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-04T21:30:00.000Z · A vs San Martin Tucuman · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico DE Rafaela · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Agropecuario · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tristan Suarez · 0-0 (D)

Quilmes

2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Tucuman · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico DE Rafaela · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Agropecuario · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tristan Suarez · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Atlético Güemes · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera Nacional table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	35	19	8	8	7	65
2	Godoy Cruz	35	18	9	8	19	63
3	Deportivo Moron	35	17	7	11	14	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	35	15	12	8	20	57
5	Colon Santa Fe	35	15	12	8	16	57
6	Almirante Brown	35	13	12	10	5	51
7	Ciudad de Bolívar	35	13	12	10	-1	51
8	CA Estudiantes	35	13	10	12	1	49
9	Chaco For Ever	35	11	10	14	0	43
10	Los Andes	35	9	15	11	1	42
11	Racing Cordoba	35	10	10	15	-11	40
12	Atletico Mitre	35	8	15	12	-11	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	8	14	12	-7	38
14	Central Norte	35	7	17	11	-8	38
15	All Boys	35	7	17	11	-9	38
16	San Telmo	35	9	11	15	-12	38
17	Acassuso	35	8	10	17	-10	34
18	San Miguel	34	6	14	14	-14	32
1	Tristan Suarez	35	16	15	4	18	63
2	Atlanta	35	19	4	12	8	61
3	Temperley	35	16	12	7	12	60
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	35	16	10	9	8	58
5	Midland	35	15	9	11	14	54
6	Gimnasia Y Tiro	35	14	10	11	3	52
7	Deportivo Maipu	35	14	9	12	9	51
8	Colegiales	35	14	9	12	4	51
9	San Martin S.J.	34	12	11	11	2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	35	11	13	11	2	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	35	12	10	13	-6	46
12	Agropecuario	35	11	10	14	-9	43
13	Quilmes	35	11	9	15	2	42
14	Almagro	35	11	9	15	-10	42
15	Chacarita Juniors	35	11	6	18	-8	39
16	Patronato	35	7	16	12	-6	37
17	Nueva Chicago	34	9	9	16	-9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	35	6	8	21	-34	26

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gimnasia Y Tiro win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.