Nou Estadi de Tarragona · Referee S. Escriche · Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Gimnastic vs Sant Andreu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Gimnastic and 0.82 for Sant Andreu, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Gimnastic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.5% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnastic home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sant Andreu away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnastic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 30% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Gimnastic and 0.82 for Sant Andreu, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.0%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–09.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 61.2% vs market 49.3%, edge +11.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 49.3% | 61.2% | 1.63 | +11.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 54.5% | 55.8% | 1.79 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 43.9% | 44.3% | 2.26 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.2% | 74.5% | 1.34 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.3% | 30.2% | 3.31 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.40 | 25.8% | 25.6% | 3.91 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.3% | 69.9% | 1.43 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 50.7% | 38.8% | 2.58 | -11.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Gimnastic
- 2026-09-26T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Sant Andreu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcorcon · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Algeciras · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Cartagena · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Zaragoza · 2-0 (W)
Sant Andreu
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Antequera · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Gimnastic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ibiza · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Águilas · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T16:45:00.000Z · Gimnastic 1-2 Sant Andreu (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaragoza | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Real Murcia | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Villarreal II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Hércules | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Alcorcon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | FC Cartagena | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Real Jaén | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Antequera | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Huesca | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Ibiza | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlético Madrid II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Real Madrid II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Gimnastic | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Algeciras | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Europa Fc | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Águilas | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Teruel | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 19 | Rayo Majadahonda | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 20 | Juventud Torremolinos | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.