· Analysis updated 16:07 UTC
Gimnástica Segoviana vs Leganés II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Gimnástica Segoviana and 2.13 for Leganés II, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Leganés II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Leganés II win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnástica Segoviana home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leganés II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leganés II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 33% / 21% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Gimnástica Segoviana and 2.13 for Leganés II, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–35.7%
Recent form
Gimnástica Segoviana
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Reyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RSD Alcalá · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Conquense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Calvo Sotelo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 0-1 (L)
Leganés II
- 2026-10-04T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Móstoles · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Cala Pozuelo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Las Rozas · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Aranjuez · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Leganés II win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.