Estadio La Albuera · Analysis updated 03:43 UTC
Gimnástica Segoviana vs Real Ávila Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Gimnástica Segoviana and 0.85 for Real Ávila, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Gimnástica Segoviana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Gimnástica Segoviana win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnástica Segoviana home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Ávila away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnástica Segoviana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 23% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Gimnástica Segoviana and 0.85 for Real Ávila, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 2–011.4%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Gimnástica Segoviana
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tordesillas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs A Madrid III · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Valladolid II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Reyes · 2-0 (W)
Real Ávila
- 2026-10-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Paso · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Valladolid II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Numancia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Reyes · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conquense | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | SS Reyes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | CF Talavera | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Real Valladolid II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 5 | A Madrid III | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Numancia | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Salamanca UDS | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Navalcarnero | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Atlético Tordesillas | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Atlético Paso | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Guadalajara | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Albacete II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | RSD Alcalá | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Real Ávila | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Calvo Sotelo | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Getafe II | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | Real Madrid III | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gimnástica Segoviana win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.