Estadio La Albuera · Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
Gimnástica Segoviana vs Real Valladolid II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Gimnástica Segoviana and 1.96 for Real Valladolid II, a combined total of 3.66. That distribution gives Real Valladolid II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnástica Segoviana home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Valladolid II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 34% / 22% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Gimnástica Segoviana and 1.96 for Real Valladolid II, a combined 3.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 70%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.6%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–35.5%
Recent form
Gimnástica Segoviana
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tordesillas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs A Madrid III · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Valladolid II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Reyes · 2-0 (W)
Real Valladolid II
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Albacete II · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Reyes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Leganés II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-29T15:00:00.000Z · Gimnástica Segoviana 1-2 Real Valladolid II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-09-14T10:00:00.000Z · Gimnástica Segoviana 2-2 Real Valladolid II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-08-19T09:00:00.000Z · Gimnástica Segoviana 0-2 Real Valladolid II (Friendlies Clubs)
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conquense | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | SS Reyes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | CF Talavera | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Real Valladolid II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 5 | A Madrid III | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Numancia | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Salamanca UDS | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Navalcarnero | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Atlético Tordesillas | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Atlético Paso | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Guadalajara | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Albacete II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | RSD Alcalá | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Real Ávila | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Calvo Sotelo | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Getafe II | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | Real Madrid III | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.