Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Cayón Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Gimnástica Torrelavega and 0.78 for Cayón, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Gimnástica Torrelavega the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Gimnástica Torrelavega win

60.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 0.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gimnástica Torrelavega home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cayón away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Gimnástica Torrelavega win61%

Draw23%

Cayón win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–014.0%
2–012.3%
1–110.9%
2–19.5%
0–08.0%

Recent form

Gimnástica Torrelavega

2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Marino de Luanco · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oviedo II · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bergantiños · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eibar II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Llanera · 2-1 (W)

Cayón

2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mineros · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarnizo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 3-1 (W)
2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tropezón · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-19T16:00:00.000Z · Gimnástica Torrelavega 2-0 Cayón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
2025-12-14T11:00:00.000Z · Gimnástica Torrelavega 2-0 Cayón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
2024-04-21T10:00:00.000Z · Gimnástica Torrelavega 2-1 Cayón (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
2023-12-10T16:00:00.000Z · Gimnástica Torrelavega 2-2 Cayón (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
2021-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Gimnástica Torrelavega 2-0 Cayón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
2021-04-18T15:30:00.000Z · Gimnástica Torrelavega 0-2 Cayón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tropezón	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	Bezana	6	5	1	0	8	16
3	Laredo	6	5	0	1	12	15
4	Sámano	6	3	2	1	8	11
5	Revilla	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Cayón	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Torina	6	2	4	0	6	10
8	Vimenor	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Selaya	6	2	1	3	-3	7
10	Atlético Mineros	6	2	0	4	-8	6
11	Guarnizo	6	1	2	3	-3	5
12	Solares	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Castro	6	1	2	3	-4	5
14	Escobedo	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Velarde	6	1	1	4	-7	4
17	Barquereño	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	0	2	4	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gimnástica Torrelavega win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.