· Analysis updated 15:13 UTC
Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Deportivo Alavés II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Gimnástica Torrelavega and 1.15 for Deportivo Alavés II, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Deportivo Alavés II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
74.6% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gimnástica Torrelavega home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Alavés II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Alavés II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 26% / 31% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Gimnástica Torrelavega and 1.15 for Deportivo Alavés II, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.4%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–29.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 62.4% vs market 51.5%, edge +10.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 51.5% | 62.4% | 1.60 | +10.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.9% | 69.4% | 1.44 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 2.05 | 43.6% | 43.9% | 2.28 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.67 | 56.1% | 56.2% | 1.78 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 3.50 | 25.5% | 25.5% | 3.92 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.8% | 30.7% | 3.26 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 75.0% | 74.6% | 1.34 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.5% | 37.6% | 2.66 | -10.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Marino de Luanco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oviedo II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bergantiños · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eibar II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Llanera · 2-1 (W)
Deportivo Alavés II
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gernika · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Portugalete · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arosa · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Oviedo II · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sestao River | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Deportivo Alavés II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Bergantiños | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Eibar II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Compostela | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Amorebieta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Portugalete | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Gernika | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 9 | Ourense CF | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | Real Oviedo II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Basconia | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Coruxo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Atlético Astorga | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Arosa | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Llanera | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Marino de Luanco | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Racing Santander II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 74.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.