Gimnástica Torrelavega vs UD Ourense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Gimnástica Torrelavega and 1.07 for UD Ourense, a combined total of 2.51. That distribution gives Gimnástica Torrelavega the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Gimnástica Torrelavega win

45.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.07

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gimnástica Torrelavega home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UD Ourense away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnástica Torrelavega to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 26% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Gimnástica Torrelavega and 1.07 for UD Ourense, a combined 2.51 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Gimnástica Torrelavega win46%

Draw26%

UD Ourense win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.5%
1–011.8%
2–19.0%
0–18.7%
2–08.5%

Recent form

Gimnástica Torrelavega

2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Marino de Luanco · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oviedo II · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bergantiños · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eibar II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Llanera · 2-1 (W)

UD Ourense

2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Unión · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cacereño · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mirandes · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Copa del Rey table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pinatar	2	2	0	0	11	6
2	Prat	2	2	0	0	9	6
3	Anaitasuna	2	2	0	0	8	6
4	Lebrijana	2	2	0	0	6	6
5	Atletico Calatayud	2	2	0	0	3	6
6	Alcazar	2	2	0	0	2	6
7	Hortaleza	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Ribadesella CF	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Auriense	2	1	0	1	1	3
10	CD San Jose	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Maracena	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Tavernes	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Güímar	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Noja	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Talayuela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Baztán	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Ceuta 6 de Junio	2	0	0	2	-6	0
18	Tedeón	2	0	0	2	-8	0
19	San Rafael	2	0	0	2	-9	0
20	Atlético Melilla	2	0	0	2	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gimnástica Torrelavega win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.