Gimpo Salter Soccer Field · Analysis updated 03:51 UTC
Gimpo Citizen vs Busan I Park Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Gimpo Citizen and 1.26 for Busan I Park, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Gimpo Citizen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
Gimpo Citizen or Draw
66.9% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–27.7%
Why the model likes this
Gimpo Citizen home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimpo Citizen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Gimpo Citizen and 1.26 for Busan I Park, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Gimpo Citizen
- 2026-08-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheongju · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Gyeongnam FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Incheon United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Yongin City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Daegu FC · 1-1 (D)
Busan I Park
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon Bluewings | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 41 |
| 2 | Suwon City FC | 20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 37 |
| 3 | Busan I Park | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 37 |
| 4 | Seoul E-Land FC | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 37 |
| 5 | Hwaseong | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 36 |
| 6 | Daegu FC | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 35 |
| 7 | Gimpo Citizen | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 30 |
| 8 | Asan Mugunghwa | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 28 |
| 9 | Gyeongnam FC | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | -1 | 26 |
| 10 | Seongnam FC | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | -2 | 23 |
| 11 | Yongin City | 20 | 4 | 10 | 6 | -4 | 22 |
| 12 | Cheongju | 21 | 3 | 13 | 5 | -9 | 22 |
| 13 | Paju Citizen | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 21 |
| 14 | Cheonan City | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | -3 | 20 |
| 15 | Ansan Greeners | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -16 | 19 |
| 16 | Jeonnam Dragons | 20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 13 |
| 17 | Gimhae City | 20 | 2 | 6 | 12 | -21 | 12 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.