GeoSalmo vollurinn · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Ægir vs Grindavik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Ægir and 2.68 for Grindavik, a combined total of 4.53. That distribution gives Grindavik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Grindavik win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 2.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ægir home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grindavik away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grindavik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 26% / 18% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Ægir and 2.68 for Grindavik, a combined 4.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.2%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–15.4%
Recent form
Ægir
- 2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Völsungur · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-06T19:15:00.000Z · A vs IR Reykjavik · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-28T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Njardvik · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grotta · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-07-10T19:15:00.000Z · H vs HK Kopavogur · 3-4 (L)
Grindavik
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ægir · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs HK Kopavogur · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fylkir · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Grotta · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Throttur Reykjavik · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Deild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Afturelding | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 45 |
| 2 | Throttur Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 43 |
| 3 | Fylkir | 22 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 40 |
| 4 | HK Kopavogur | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 38 |
| 5 | Njardvik | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 6 | Leiknir R. | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 28 |
| 7 | IR Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Grotta | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -7 | 27 |
| 9 | Vestri | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -13 | 27 |
| 10 | Völsungur | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -12 | 26 |
| 11 | Grindavik | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | -10 | 25 |
| 12 | Ægir | 22 | 2 | 3 | 17 | -44 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Grindavik win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.