Camp Municipal Vidreres · Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
Girona II vs Atlètic Lleida Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Girona II and 0.78 for Atlètic Lleida, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Girona II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Girona II win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Girona II home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atlètic Lleida away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Girona II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 30% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Girona II and 0.78 for Atlètic Lleida, a combined 1.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.7%
- 0–013.9%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–010.0%
Recent form
Girona II
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SD Logroñés · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tudelano · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Barbastro · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Castellón II · 2-4 (L)
Atlètic Lleida
- 2026-08-22T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Manresa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Reddis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Barbastro · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Andratx · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona B · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ucam Murcia | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Castellón II | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Castellonense | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | La Nucía | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cieza | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Deportiva Minera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Yeclano | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Alcoyano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Orihuela | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Lorca Deportiva | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Intercity | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Elche II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Atlético Baleares | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Poblense | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Mallorca II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Peña Deportiva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Valencia II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 | Real Murcia II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Girona II win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.