Estadi Montilivi · Referee Jose Antonio Sanchez Villalobos, Spain · Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
Girona vs Castellón Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Girona and 1.40 for Castellón, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Girona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Girona home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Castellón away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Girona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Girona and 1.40 for Castellón, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Girona
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tenerife · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Mallorca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-25T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Albacete · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cadiz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 1-2 (L)
Castellón
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Andorra · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AD Ceuta FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Leganes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tenerife · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · Girona 1-2 Castellón (Segunda División)
- 2026-07-29T16:30:00.000Z · Girona 3-3 Castellón (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-02-21T17:15:00.000Z · Girona 2-1 Castellón (Segunda División)
- 2020-10-24T18:30:00.000Z · Girona 1-0 Castellón (Segunda División)
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 2 | Castellón | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | Eibar | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | Sporting Gijon | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Mallorca | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | Sabadell | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Girona | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Burgos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Granada CF | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Valladolid | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Cordoba | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Celta de Vigo II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Eldense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Las Palmas | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 17 | Leganes | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 11 |
| 18 | FC Andorra | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.