Estadi Montilivi · Referee Jose Guzman · Analysis updated 16:34 UTC
Girona vs Celta de Vigo II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Girona and 0.70 for Celta de Vigo II, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Girona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Girona win
69.9% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Girona home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Celta de Vigo II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Girona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 19% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Girona and 0.70 for Celta de Vigo II, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.4%
- 1–012.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.4%
- 1–18.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 55.8% vs market 46.7%, edge +9.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 55.8% | 1.79 | +9.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.08 | 88.0% | 88.8% | 1.13 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.30 | 69.8% | 69.9% | 1.43 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.80 | 18.9% | 18.9% | 5.29 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 8.00 | 11.3% | 11.2% | 8.93 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 81.3% | 81.1% | 1.23 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.10 | 30.7% | 30.1% | 3.32 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 44.2% | 2.26 | -9.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Girona
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Celta de Vigo II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Andorra · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tenerife · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Mallorca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-25T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Albacete · 2-0 (W)
Celta de Vigo II
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Tenerife · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Gijon · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · Girona 5-1 Celta de Vigo II (Segunda División)
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Castellón | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Girona | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Granada CF | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 8 | Oviedo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Burgos | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Sabadell | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Cordoba | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Eldense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 13 | Las Palmas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 | Tenerife | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 15 | Valladolid | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 17 | Leganes | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 |
| 18 | FC Andorra | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Girona win, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.