Estadi Montilivi · Referee Eder Mallo Fernandez, Spain · Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Girona vs Mallorca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Girona and 0.98 for Mallorca, a combined total of 1.97. That distribution gives Girona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.0% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Girona home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mallorca away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Girona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 31% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Girona and 0.98 for Mallorca, a combined 1.97 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–014.0%
- 1–013.9%
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.5%
- 2–06.9%
Recent form
Girona
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tenerife · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Mallorca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-25T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Albacete · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cadiz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 1-2 (L)
Mallorca
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Palmas · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Almeria · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Eibar | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 3 | Castellón | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Mallorca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Sabadell | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Sporting Gijon | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Girona | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Burgos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Granada CF | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Valladolid | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Celta de Vigo II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Eldense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Las Palmas | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Leganes | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 17 | FC Andorra | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 18 | Cordoba | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.