GKS Katowice vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for GKS Katowice and 0.80 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives GKS Katowice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

GKS Katowice win

67.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.13 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

GKS Katowice home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cracovia Krakow away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GKS Katowice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 19% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for GKS Katowice and 0.80 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

GKS Katowice win68%

Draw19%

Cracovia Krakow win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

2–012.1%
1–011.4%
2–19.7%
1–19.1%
3–08.6%

Recent form

GKS Katowice

2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Raków Częstochowa · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cracovia Krakow · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Lubin · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Piast Gliwice · 0-3 (L)

Cracovia Krakow

2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs GKS Katowice · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Plock · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Znicz Pruszków · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ekstraklasa table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	11	8	2	1	10	26
2	Lech Poznan	10	8	1	1	18	25
3	Legia Warszawa	11	6	5	0	13	23
4	Pogon Szczecin	10	6	3	1	9	21
5	GKS Katowice	11	6	0	5	6	18
6	Wisla Krakow	11	5	3	3	3	18
7	Zaglebie Lubin	11	5	3	3	0	18
8	Piast Gliwice	11	5	2	4	2	17
9	Korona Kielce	11	4	3	4	-5	15
10	Wisla Plock	10	4	2	4	-5	14
11	Cracovia Krakow	11	3	3	5	-3	12
12	Motor Lublin	11	3	3	5	-4	12
13	Jagiellonia	10	4	0	6	-4	12
14	Widzew Łódź	11	1	7	3	-1	10
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	2	2	7	-5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	11	2	2	7	-15	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	1	3	7	-8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	11	2	0	9	-11	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is GKS Katowice win, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.