Gleisdorf 09 vs SV Lafnitz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for Gleisdorf 09 and 2.29 for SV Lafnitz, a combined total of 3.98. That distribution gives SV Lafnitz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SV Lafnitz win

51.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.69 – 2.29

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gleisdorf 09 home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SV Lafnitz away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SV Lafnitz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 29% / 20% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.69 goals for Gleisdorf 09 and 2.29 for SV Lafnitz, a combined 3.98 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Gleisdorf 09 win29%

Draw20%

SV Lafnitz win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals56%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

1–28.3%
1–17.2%
2–27.0%
1–36.3%
2–16.1%

Recent form

Gleisdorf 09

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tillmitsch · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hartberg (Am) · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiz · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Allerheiligen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deutschlandsberger SC · 2-4 (L)

SV Lafnitz

2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tillmitsch · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hartberg (Am) · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiz · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Allerheiligen · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Deutschlandsberger SC · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Velden	12	7	5	0	11	26
2	Deutschlandsberger SC	11	6	4	1	8	22
3	Völkermarkt	12	6	2	4	11	20
4	Treibach	12	6	2	4	7	20
5	Austria Klagenfurt	12	6	2	4	1	20
6	Weiz	11	4	6	1	6	18
7	Kalsdorf	11	5	3	3	4	18
8	SV Lafnitz	11	4	5	2	2	17
9	Wolfsberger AC	11	4	3	4	0	15
10	Allerheiligen	11	3	3	5	1	12
11	Tillmitsch	11	2	5	4	-3	11
12	Bleiburg	11	2	4	5	-3	10
13	Hartberg (Am)	11	2	4	5	-7	10
14	Wolfsberg	12	2	4	6	-17	10
15	Gleisdorf 09	11	2	2	7	-11	8
16	Donau Klagenfurt	12	1	4	7	-10	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SV Lafnitz win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.