Glenavon FC vs Ards Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.11 expected goals for Glenavon FC and 0.96 for Ards, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Glenavon FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Glenavon FC win

63.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.11 – 0.96

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Glenavon FC home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ards away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Glenavon FC win64%

Draw20%

Ards win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

2–010.4%
2–19.9%
1–09.8%
1–19.4%
3–07.3%

Recent form

Glenavon FC

2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Moyola Park · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Loughgall · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newington Youth · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballinamallard United · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundela · 2-3 (L)

Ards

2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Institute · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newington Youth · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballinamallard United · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strabane Athletic · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Moyola Park · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · Glenavon FC 1-3 Ards (Championship)
2023-07-18T18:45:00.000Z · Glenavon FC 6-3 Ards (Friendlies Clubs)
2019-02-09T15:00:00.000Z · Glenavon FC 2-0 Ards (Premiership)
2018-11-24T15:00:00.000Z · Glenavon FC 3-1 Ards (Premiership)
2018-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · Glenavon FC 2-0 Ards (Premiership)
2018-02-13T19:45:00.000Z · Glenavon FC 6-1 Ards (Premiership)
2017-12-02T15:00:00.000Z · Glenavon FC 2-0 Ards (Premiership)
2017-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · Glenavon FC 0-4 Ards (League Cup)
2017-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · Glenavon FC 3-0 Ards (Premiership)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Annagh United	13	8	4	1	17	28
2	Newington Youth	13	8	2	3	7	26
3	Glenavon FC	12	7	3	2	16	24
4	Ballinamallard United	13	6	3	4	2	21
5	Queen's University	13	6	2	5	8	20
6	Institute	12	6	2	4	5	20
7	Newry City AFC	13	5	4	4	-2	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	4	18
9	Loughgall	13	4	5	4	-5	17
10	Ards	13	4	4	5	-1	16
11	H&W Welders	13	5	1	7	-3	16
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	-10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	4	0	8	-11	12
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	-5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	13	2	4	7	-11	10
16	Armagh City	13	0	6	7	-11	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Glenavon FC win, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.